Discounted Cash Flow

PDD Holdings Inc. ADR

PDD · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from CNY to USD

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $0 $-43.2m $129.9m $-0.18
2017 $1.7b $-77.7m (-79.8%) $-77.7m (-159.8%) -4.5% $-0.28 (-55.6%)
2018 $1.9b (9.4%) $-219.9m (-183.0%) $1.1b (1579.0%) -11.5% (-158.6%) $-0.50 (-78.6%)
2019 $4.3b (126.9%) $-148.1m (32.7%) $-148.1m (-112.9%) -3.4% (70.3%) $-0.22 (56.0%)
2020 $9.1b (110.6%) $-162.8m (-9.9%) $-162.8m (-9.9%) -1.8% (47.8%) $-0.23 (-4.5%)
2021 $93.9b (930.4%) $1.1b (806.0%) $4.2b (2698.2%) 1.2% (168.5%) $1.55 (773.9%)
2022 $18.9b (-79.9%) $676.7m (-41.1%) $676.7m (-84.0%) 3.6% (192.1%) $0.90 (-41.9%)
2023 $34.9b (84.3%) $1.3b (84.9%) $1.3b (84.9%) 3.6% (0.3%) $1.56 (73.3%)
2024 $54.0b (54.7%) $2.3b (82.2%) $18.0b (1341.7%) 4.2% (17.8%) $2.78 (78.2%)
2025 $61.8b (14.5%) $2.1b (-9.2%) $15.8b (-12.3%) 3.4% (-20.6%) $2.50 (-10.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model