Discounted Cash Flow

Penumbra Inc.

PEN · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $263.3m $14.8m $-26.4m 5.6% $0.49
2017 $333.8m (26.8%) $4.7m (-68.6%) $159.0k (100.6%) 1.4% (-75.2%) $0.14 (-71.4%)
2018 $444.9m (33.3%) $6.6m (41.7%) $19.2m (11978.6%) 1.5% (6.3%) $0.19 (35.7%)
2019 $547.4m (23.0%) $48.5m (634.1%) $4.5m (-76.3%) 8.9% (496.7%) $1.39 (631.6%)
2020 $560.4m (2.4%) $-15.7m (-132.4%) $-58.0m (-1376.6%) -2.8% (-131.7%) $-0.44 (-131.7%)
2021 $747.6m (33.4%) $5.3m (133.7%) $-11.7m (79.9%) 0.7% (125.2%) $0.14 (131.8%)
2022 $847.1m (13.3%) $-2.0m (-137.9%) $-75.0m (-541.9%) -0.2% (-133.4%) $-0.05 (-135.7%)
2023 $1.1b (25.0%) $91.0m (4643.2%) $82.1m (209.6%) 8.6% (3735.9%) $2.37 (4840.0%)
2024 $1.2b (12.9%) $14.0m (-84.6%) $14.0m (-82.9%) 1.2% (-86.3%) $0.36 (-84.8%)
2025 $1.4b (17.5%) $177.7m (1168.1%) $174.9m (1148.5%) 12.7% (979.2%) $4.57 (1169.4%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model