Discounted Cash Flow

Pepsico Inc.

PEP · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $62.8b $6.3b $7.4b 10.1% $4.39
2017 $63.5b (1.2%) $4.9b (-23.3%) $7.0b (-4.6%) 7.6% (-24.1%) $3.40 (-22.6%)
2018 $64.7b (1.8%) $12.5b (157.7%) $6.1b (-12.7%) 19.4% (153.1%) $8.84 (160.0%)
2019 $67.2b (3.9%) $7.3b (-41.6%) $5.4b (-11.7%) 10.9% (-43.7%) $5.23 (-40.8%)
2020 $70.4b (4.8%) $7.1b (-2.7%) $6.4b (17.6%) 10.1% (-7.1%) $5.14 (-1.7%)
2021 $79.5b (12.9%) $7.6b (7.0%) $7.0b (9.7%) 9.6% (-5.3%) $5.51 (7.2%)
2022 $86.4b (8.7%) $8.9b (17.0%) $5.6b (-19.8%) 10.3% (7.6%) $6.45 (17.1%)
2023 $91.5b (5.9%) $9.1b (1.8%) $7.9b (41.4%) 9.9% (-3.8%) $6.59 (2.2%)
2024 $91.9b (0.4%) $9.6b (5.6%) $7.2b (-9.3%) 10.4% (5.1%) $6.97 (5.8%)
2025 $93.9b (2.3%) $8.2b (-14.0%) $7.7b (6.7%) 8.8% (-15.9%) $6.02 (-13.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model