Discounted Cash Flow

Provident Financial Services Inc.

PFS · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $314.0m $87.8m $122.3m 28.0% $1.38
2017 $333.9m (6.4%) $93.9m (7.0%) $114.0m (-6.8%) 28.1% (0.6%) $1.46 (5.8%)
2018 $359.4m (7.6%) $118.4m (26.0%) $152.6m (33.8%) 32.9% (17.1%) $1.82 (24.7%)
2019 $361.8m (0.7%) $112.6m (-4.9%) $132.0m (-13.4%) 31.1% (-5.5%) $1.74 (-4.4%)
2020 $385.0m (6.4%) $97.0m (-13.9%) $94.1m (-28.7%) 25.2% (-19.1%) $1.39 (-20.1%)
2021 $452.8m (17.6%) $167.9m (73.2%) $144.4m (53.5%) 37.1% (47.3%) $2.20 (58.3%)
2022 $505.3m (11.6%) $175.6m (4.6%) $190.9m (32.2%) 34.8% (-6.3%) $2.35 (6.8%)
2023 $479.3m (-5.2%) $128.4m (-26.9%) $165.9m (-13.1%) 26.8% (-22.9%) $1.72 (-26.8%)
2024 $694.7m (45.0%) $115.5m (-10.0%) $425.1m (156.2%) 16.6% (-37.9%) $1.05 (-39.0%)
2025 $870.4m (25.3%) $291.2m (152.0%) $430.7m (1.3%) 33.5% (101.2%) $2.23 (112.4%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model