Discounted Cash Flow

Pennymac Financial Services, Inc.

PFSI · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $955.5m $100.8m $-883.4m 10.5% $4.34
2018 $984.6m (3.1%) $87.7m (-13.0%) $572.4m (164.8%) 8.9% (-15.5%) $2.62 (-39.8%)
2019 $1.5b (50.0%) $393.0m (348.1%) $-2.2b (-492.2%) 26.6% (198.6%) $5.02 (92.1%)
2020 $3.7b (150.8%) $1.6b (319.1%) $-6.2b (-176.1%) 44.4% (67.1%) $21.91 (336.1%)
2021 $3.2b (-14.5%) $1.0b (-39.1%) $2.6b (141.3%) 31.7% (-28.7%) $15.73 (-28.2%)
2022 $2.0b (-37.3%) $475.5m (-52.6%) $475.5m (-81.4%) 23.9% (-24.4%) $8.96 (-43.0%)
2023 $1.4b (-29.4%) $144.7m (-69.6%) $144.7m (-69.6%) 10.3% (-56.9%) $2.89 (-67.7%)
2024 $1.6b (13.7%) $311.4m (115.3%) $311.4m (115.3%) 19.5% (89.3%) $6.11 (111.0%)
2025 $2.0b (28.4%) $501.1m (60.9%) $-1.7b (-643.1%) 24.5% (25.3%) $9.69 (58.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model