Discounted Cash Flow
Progressive Corp./Oh/
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $23.4b | $1.0b | $2.5b | 4.4% | $1.77 |
| 2017 | $26.8b (14.5%) | $1.6b (54.4%) | $3.6b (44.8%) | 5.9% (34.9%) | $2.74 (54.8%) |
| 2018 | $32.0b (19.2%) | $2.6b (64.3%) | $6.0b (67.1%) | 8.2% (37.9%) | $4.45 (62.4%) |
| 2019 | $39.0b (22.0%) | $4.0b (51.8%) | $5.9b (-2.0%) | 10.2% (24.4%) | $6.75 (51.7%) |
| 2020 | $42.7b (9.3%) | $5.7b (43.7%) | $6.7b (13.3%) | 13.4% (31.4%) | $9.71 (43.9%) |
| 2021 | $47.7b (11.8%) | $3.4b (-41.3%) | $7.5b (12.5%) | 7.0% (-47.5%) | $5.69 (-41.4%) |
| 2022 | $49.6b (4.0%) | $721.5m (-78.5%) | $6.6b (-12.8%) | 1.5% (-79.3%) | $1.19 (-79.1%) |
| 2023 | $62.1b (25.2%) | $3.9b (440.9%) | $10.4b (58.5%) | 6.3% (332.0%) | $6.61 (455.5%) |
| 2024 | $75.4b (21.4%) | $8.5b (117.3%) | $14.8b (42.8%) | 11.3% (79.1%) | $14.45 (118.6%) |
| 2025 | $87.7b (16.3%) | $11.3b (33.3%) | $17.2b (15.9%) | 12.9% (14.6%) | $19.29 (33.5%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.