Discounted Cash Flow

Pultegroup Inc./Mi/

PHM · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $7.7b $602.7m $29.0m 7.9% $1.76
2017 $8.6b (11.8%) $447.2m (-25.8%) $631.0m (2077.8%) 5.2% (-33.6%) $1.45 (-17.6%)
2018 $10.2b (18.8%) $1.0b (128.5%) $1.4b (120.4%) 10.0% (92.3%) $3.56 (145.5%)
2019 $10.2b (0.2%) $1.0b (-0.5%) $1.0b (-26.7%) 10.0% (-0.8%) $3.67 (3.1%)
2020 $11.0b (8.1%) $1.4b (38.4%) $1.7b (69.3%) 12.7% (28.1%) $5.19 (41.4%)
2021 $13.9b (26.2%) $1.9b (38.3%) $931.2m (-46.0%) 14.0% (9.6%) $7.44 (43.4%)
2022 $16.2b (16.5%) $2.6b (34.5%) $555.8m (-40.3%) 16.1% (15.4%) $11.07 (48.8%)
2023 $16.1b (-1.0%) $2.6b (-0.6%) $2.1b (278.7%) 16.2% (0.5%) $11.79 (6.5%)
2024 $17.9b (11.7%) $3.1b (18.5%) $1.6b (-25.8%) 17.2% (6.0%) $14.82 (25.7%)
2025 $17.3b (-3.5%) $2.2b (-28.0%) $1.7b (11.9%) 12.8% (-25.4%) $11.21 (-24.4%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model