Discounted Cash Flow

Packaging Corp. of America

PKG · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $5.8b $449.6m $526.9m 7.8% $4.76
2017 $6.4b (11.5%) $668.6m (48.7%) $513.1m (-2.6%) 10.4% (33.3%) $7.09 (48.9%)
2018 $7.0b (8.8%) $738.0m (10.4%) $628.7m (22.5%) 10.5% (1.4%) $7.82 (10.3%)
2019 $7.0b (-0.7%) $696.4m (-5.6%) $807.9m (28.5%) 10.0% (-5.0%) $7.36 (-5.9%)
2020 $6.7b (-4.4%) $461.0m (-33.8%) $611.6m (-24.3%) 6.9% (-30.8%) $4.86 (-34.0%)
2021 $7.7b (16.1%) $841.1m (82.5%) $489.0m (-20.0%) 10.9% (57.1%) $8.87 (82.5%)
2022 $8.5b (9.7%) $1.0b (22.4%) $670.8m (37.2%) 12.1% (11.6%) $11.08 (24.9%)
2023 $7.8b (-8.0%) $765.2m (-25.7%) $845.4m (26.0%) 9.8% (-19.3%) $8.52 (-23.1%)
2024 $8.4b (7.4%) $805.1m (5.2%) $521.5m (-38.3%) 9.6% (-2.1%) $8.97 (5.3%)
2025 $9.0b (7.2%) $774.1m (-3.9%) $728.6m (39.7%) 8.6% (-10.3%) $8.61 (-4.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model