Discounted Cash Flow

Douglas Dynamics, Inc.

PLOW · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $416.3m $38.5m $60.1m 9.2% $1.71
2017 $474.9m (14.1%) $55.3m (43.8%) $58.8m (-2.2%) 11.6% (26.1%) $2.42 (41.5%)
2018 $524.1m (10.3%) $43.9m (-20.6%) $48.5m (-17.5%) 8.4% (-28.1%) $1.91 (-21.1%)
2019 $571.7m (9.1%) $49.2m (12.0%) $65.8m (35.6%) 8.6% (2.7%) $2.13 (11.5%)
2020 $480.2m (-16.0%) $-86.6m (-276.0%) $38.9m (-40.9%) -18.0% (-309.6%) $-3.81 (-278.9%)
2021 $541.5m (12.8%) $30.7m (135.5%) $49.3m (26.9%) 5.7% (131.4%) $1.31 (134.4%)
2022 $616.1m (13.8%) $38.6m (25.8%) $27.6m (-44.0%) 6.3% (10.6%) $1.65 (26.0%)
2023 $568.2m (-7.8%) $23.7m (-38.6%) $2.7m (-90.2%) 4.2% (-33.4%) $1.01 (-38.8%)
2024 $568.5m (0.1%) $56.2m (136.7%) $33.4m (1134.4%) 9.9% (136.6%) $2.39 (136.6%)
2025 $656.1m (15.4%) $46.9m (-16.5%) $63.9m (91.4%) 7.1% (-27.6%) $1.99 (-16.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model