Discounted Cash Flow

Post Holdings, Inc.

POST · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $5.0b $-3.3m $502.4m -0.1% $-0.41
2017 $5.2b (4.0%) $48.3m (1563.6%) $386.7m (-23.0%) 0.9% (1507.9%) $0.51 (224.4%)
2018 $6.3b (19.7%) $467.3m (867.5%) $719.3m (86.0%) 7.5% (708.0%) $6.87 (1247.1%)
2019 $5.7b (-9.2%) $124.7m (-73.3%) $688.0m (-4.4%) 2.2% (-70.6%) $1.72 (-75.0%)
2020 $5.7b (0.3%) $800.0k (-99.4%) $625.6m (-9.1%) 0.0% (-99.4%) $0.01 (-99.4%)
2021 $6.2b (9.3%) $166.7m (20737.5%) $588.2m (-6.0%) 2.7% (18970.6%) $2.42 (24100.0%)
2022 $5.9b (-6.0%) $756.6m (353.9%) $128.9m (-78.1%) 12.9% (383.0%) $12.42 (413.2%)
2023 $7.0b (19.5%) $301.3m (-60.2%) $447.3m (247.0%) 4.3% (-66.7%) $5.21 (-58.1%)
2024 $7.9b (13.3%) $366.7m (21.7%) $502.2m (12.3%) 4.6% (7.4%) $6.12 (17.5%)
2025 $8.2b (3.0%) $335.7m (-8.5%) $488.1m (-2.8%) 4.1% (-11.1%) $5.98 (-2.3%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model