Discounted Cash Flow

Progress Software Corp. /Ma

PRGS · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $405.3m $-55.7m $97.1m -13.7% $-1.13
2017 $397.6m (-1.9%) $37.4m (167.1%) $102.3m (5.4%) 9.4% (168.5%) $0.78 (169.0%)
2018 $397.2m (-0.1%) $63.5m (69.7%) $114.1m (11.5%) 16.0% (69.9%) $1.39 (78.2%)
2019 $413.3m (4.1%) $26.4m (-58.4%) $124.5m (9.1%) 6.4% (-60.0%) $0.59 (-57.6%)
2020 $442.1m (7.0%) $79.7m (202.0%) $138.3m (11.1%) 18.0% (182.3%) $1.78 (201.7%)
2021 $531.3m (20.2%) $78.4m (-1.6%) $173.9m (25.7%) 14.8% (-18.1%) $1.79 (0.6%)
2022 $602.0m (13.3%) $95.1m (21.2%) $186.1m (7.0%) 15.8% (7.0%) $2.19 (22.3%)
2023 $694.4m (15.4%) $70.2m (-26.2%) $168.3m (-9.5%) 10.1% (-36.0%) $1.62 (-26.0%)
2024 $753.4m (8.5%) $68.4m (-2.5%) $206.3m (22.5%) 9.1% (-10.1%) $1.58 (-2.5%)
2025 $977.8m (29.8%) $73.1m (6.9%) $229.5m (11.2%) 7.5% (-17.7%) $1.70 (7.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model