Discounted Cash Flow

Phillips 66

PSX · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $84.3b $1.6b $119.0m 1.8% $2.94
2017 $102.4b (21.4%) $5.1b (228.4%) $1.8b (1426.1%) 5.0% (170.4%) $9.90 (236.7%)
2018 $111.5b (8.9%) $5.6b (9.6%) $4.9b (171.7%) 5.0% (0.6%) $11.87 (19.9%)
2019 $107.3b (-3.7%) $3.1b (-45.0%) $935.0m (-81.0%) 2.9% (-42.9%) $6.80 (-42.7%)
2020 $64.1b (-40.2%) $-4.0b (-229.2%) $-809.0m (-186.5%) -6.2% (-316.2%) $-9.06 (-233.2%)
2021 $111.5b (73.8%) $1.3b (133.1%) $4.2b (613.8%) 1.2% (119.1%) $2.97 (132.8%)
2022 $170.0b (52.5%) $11.0b (737.1%) $8.9b (114.7%) 6.5% (448.9%) $23.36 (686.5%)
2023 $147.4b (-13.3%) $7.0b (-36.4%) $4.9b (-45.4%) 4.8% (-26.6%) $15.56 (-33.4%)
2024 $143.2b (-2.9%) $2.1b (-69.8%) $2.3b (-52.2%) 1.5% (-68.9%) $5.01 (-67.8%)
2025 $132.4b (-7.5%) $4.4b (108.0%) $2.7b (17.0%) 3.3% (124.9%) $10.82 (116.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model