Discounted Cash Flow

Paypal Holdings, Inc.

PYPL · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $10.8b $1.4b $1.4b 12.9% $1.16
2017 $13.1b (20.8%) $1.8b (28.1%) $-16.9b (-1305.4%) 13.7% (6.1%) $1.49 (28.4%)
2018 $15.5b (18.0%) $2.1b (14.6%) $-16.9b (-0.1%) 13.3% (-2.9%) $1.74 (16.8%)
2019 $17.8b (15.0%) $2.5b (19.5%) $-23.3b (-38.0%) 13.8% (3.9%) $2.09 (20.1%)
2020 $21.5b (20.7%) $4.2b (70.9%) $-35.7b (-52.9%) 19.6% (41.6%) $3.58 (71.3%)
2021 $25.4b (18.3%) $4.2b (-0.8%) $-33.8b (5.3%) 16.4% (-16.1%) $3.55 (-0.8%)
2022 $27.5b (8.5%) $2.4b (-42.0%) $5.1b (115.1%) 8.8% (-46.5%) $2.10 (-40.8%)
2023 $29.8b (8.2%) $4.2b (75.5%) $4.2b (-17.4%) 14.3% (62.2%) $3.85 (83.3%)
2024 $31.8b (6.8%) $4.1b (-2.3%) $-18.8b (-544.5%) 13.0% (-8.6%) $4.03 (4.7%)
2025 $33.2b (4.3%) $5.2b (26.2%) $-14.0b (25.5%) 15.8% (21.0%) $5.46 (35.5%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model