Discounted Cash Flow

Qfin Holdings, Inc. ADR

QFIN · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from CNY to USD

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $788.1m $24.5m $-17.5m 3.1% $0.83
2018 $646.8m (-17.9%) $-41.1m (-268.0%) $41.1m (334.2%) -6.4% (-304.7%) $-1.37 (-265.1%)
2019 $1.3b (104.8%) $43.2k (100.1%) $437.6m (965.8%) 0.0% (100.1%) $1.24 (190.5%)
2020 $2.1b (57.0%) $133.2k (208.2%) $788.4m (80.2%) 0.0% (96.4%) $1.80 (45.2%)
2021 $2.6b (25.6%) $2.6m (1818.8%) $855.8m (8.5%) 0.1% (1428.0%) $2.95 (63.9%)
2022 $2.4b (-8.1%) $2.8m (8.1%) $875.3m (2.3%) 0.1% (17.6%) $1.87 (-36.6%)
2023 $16.3b (578.7%) $2.5m (-9.9%) $1.0b (19.3%) 0.0% (-86.7%) $1.88 (0.5%)
2024 $17.2b (5.4%) $2.4m (-3.3%) $1.4b (30.7%) 0.0% (-8.3%) $2.88 (53.2%)
2025 $19.2b (11.9%) $2.1m (-13.3%) $1.6b (18.0%) 0.0% (-22.5%) $3.21 (11.5%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model