Discounted Cash Flow

Qualys, Inc.

QLYS · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $197.9m $19.2m $44.9m 9.7% $0.55
2017 $230.8m (16.6%) $40.4m (110.4%) $69.8m (55.6%) 17.5% (80.4%) $1.08 (96.4%)
2018 $278.9m (20.8%) $57.3m (41.7%) $102.7m (47.1%) 20.5% (17.3%) $1.47 (36.1%)
2019 $321.6m (15.3%) $69.3m (21.0%) $133.0m (29.6%) 21.6% (4.9%) $1.77 (20.4%)
2020 $363.0m (12.9%) $91.6m (32.1%) $150.0m (12.8%) 25.2% (17.0%) $2.34 (32.2%)
2021 $411.2m (13.3%) $71.0m (-22.5%) $176.2m (17.4%) 17.3% (-31.6%) $1.82 (-22.2%)
2022 $489.7m (19.1%) $108.0m (52.2%) $183.5m (4.1%) 22.1% (27.8%) $2.81 (54.4%)
2023 $554.5m (13.2%) $151.6m (40.4%) $235.8m (28.5%) 27.3% (24.0%) $4.11 (46.3%)
2024 $607.6m (9.6%) $173.7m (14.6%) $231.8m (-1.7%) 28.6% (4.6%) $4.72 (14.8%)
2025 $669.1m (10.1%) $198.3m (14.2%) $304.4m (31.3%) 29.6% (3.7%) $5.49 (16.3%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model