Discounted Cash Flow

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.

RARE · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

DCF estimate unavailable — No positive free cash flow in recent history — company has not generated positive FCF

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $133.0k $-245.9m $-171.2m -184867.7%
2017 $2.6m (1863.9%) $-302.1m (-22.9%) $-256.6m (-49.9%) -11567.3% (93.7%)
2018 $51.5m (1871.5%) $-197.6m (34.6%) $-294.6m (-14.8%) -383.7% (96.7%)
2019 $103.7m (101.4%) $-402.7m (-103.8%) $-370.2m (-25.6%) -388.3% (-1.2%)
2020 $271.0m (161.3%) $-186.6m (53.7%) $-176.1m (52.4%) -68.8% (82.3%) $-3.07
2021 $351.4m (29.7%) $-454.0m (-143.4%) $-411.8m (-133.8%) -129.2% (-87.7%) $-6.70 (-118.2%)
2022 $363.3m (3.4%) $-707.4m (-55.8%) $-496.6m (-20.6%) -194.7% (-50.7%) $-10.12 (-51.0%)
2023 $434.2m (19.5%) $-606.6m (14.2%) $-519.1m (-4.5%) -139.7% (28.3%) $-8.25 (18.5%)
2024 $560.2m (29.0%) $-569.2m (6.2%) $-421.7m (18.8%) -101.6% (27.3%) $-6.29 (23.8%)
2025 $673.0m (20.1%) $-575.0m (-1.0%) $-472.0m (-11.9%) -85.4% (15.9%) $-5.83 (7.3%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model

No positive free cash flow in recent history — company has not generated positive FCF

Once the company meets all DCF eligibility criteria (sufficient history, profitability, growth trends), an estimate will become available automatically. No action is needed.