Discounted Cash Flow

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.

RCL · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $8.5b $1.3b $22.3m 15.1% $5.96
2017 $8.8b (3.3%) $1.6b (26.6%) $2.3b (10248.1%) 18.5% (22.6%) $7.57 (27.0%)
2018 $9.5b (8.2%) $1.8b (11.4%) $-180.9m (-107.8%) 19.1% (3.0%) $8.60 (13.6%)
2019 $11.0b (15.3%) $1.9b (3.7%) $691.7m (482.4%) 17.2% (-10.1%) $8.97 (4.3%)
2020 $2.2b (-79.8%) $-5.8b (-408.6%) $-5.7b (-923.6%) -262.5% (-1629.7%) $-27.05 (-401.6%)
2021 $1.5b (-30.6%) $-5.3b (9.3%) $-4.1b (27.9%) -343.3% (-30.8%) $-20.89 (22.8%)
2022 $8.8b (477.0%) $-2.2b (59.0%) $-2.2b (45.8%) -24.4% (92.9%) $-8.45 (59.6%)
2023 $13.9b (57.2%) $1.7b (178.7%) $580.0m (126.0%) 12.2% (150.1%) $6.63 (178.5%)
2024 $16.5b (18.6%) $2.9b (69.5%) $2.0b (244.3%) 17.5% (43.0%) $11.00 (65.9%)
2025 $17.9b (8.8%) $4.3b (48.3%) $1.2b (-38.1%) 23.8% (36.3%) $15.75 (43.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model