Discounted Cash Flow

Radian Group Inc.

RDN · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $1.2b $308.3m $381.7m 24.9% $1.37
2017 $1.2b (-1.4%) $121.1m (-60.7%) $360.6m (-5.5%) 9.9% (-60.2%) $0.55 (-59.9%)
2018 $1.3b (4.2%) $606.0m (400.5%) 47.6% (380.3%) $2.83 (414.5%)
2019 $1.5b (19.9%) $672.3m (10.9%) $694.4m 44.0% (-7.5%) $3.22 (13.8%)
2020 $1.4b (-5.8%) $393.6m (-41.5%) $658.4m (-5.2%) 27.4% (-37.9%) $2.01 (-37.6%)
2021 $1.3b (-7.6%) $600.7m (52.6%) $557.1m (-15.4%) 45.2% (65.1%) $3.19 (58.7%)
2022 $1.2b (-10.5%) $742.9m (23.7%) $370.6m (-33.5%) 62.4% (38.1%) $4.42 (38.6%)
2023 $1.2b (4.2%) $603.1m (-18.8%) $1.2b (228.4%) 48.6% (-22.1%) $4.22 (-4.5%)
2024 $1.3b (4.0%) $604.4m (0.2%) $1.3b (7.5%) 46.8% (-3.6%) $4.28 (1.4%)
2025 $1.2b (-7.2%) $582.6m (-3.6%) $1.4b (9.7%) 48.7% (3.9%) $4.39 (2.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model