Discounted Cash Flow

RIO Tinto Plc. ADR

RIO · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $33.8b $4.6b $5.5b 13.7% $2.85
2017 $40.0b (18.5%) $8.8b (89.8%) $11.8b (116.4%) 21.9% (60.2%) $5.42 (89.8%)
2018 $40.5b (1.2%) $13.6b (55.6%) $6.4b (-45.5%) 33.7% (53.8%) $8.43 (55.6%)
2019 $43.2b (6.5%) $8.0b (-41.3%) $13.4b (107.6%) 18.6% (-44.9%) $4.95 (-41.3%)
2020 $44.6b (3.3%) $9.8b (22.0%) $15.7b (17.3%) 21.9% (18.0%) $6.04 (22.0%)
2021 $63.5b (42.3%) $21.1b (115.9%) $25.3b (61.8%) 33.2% (51.7%) $13.03 (115.8%)
2022 $55.6b (-12.5%) $12.4b (-41.1%) $9.4b (-63.0%) 22.4% (-32.7%) $7.67 (-41.2%)
2023 $54.0b (-2.7%) $10.1b (-19.0%) $8.1b (-14.0%) 18.6% (-16.8%) $6.20 (-19.1%)
2024 $53.7b (-0.7%) $11.6b (14.9%) $6.0b (-26.0%) 21.5% (15.7%) $7.12 (14.7%)
2025 $57.6b (7.4%) $10.0b (-13.7%) $4.5b (-24.8%) 17.3% (-19.7%) $6.14 (-13.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model