Discounted Cash Flow
Safety Insurance Group Inc.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $819.8m | $64.6m | $93.9m | 7.9% | $4.29 |
| 2017 | $839.1m (2.4%) | $62.4m (-3.4%) | $76.1m (-19.0%) | 7.4% (-5.6%) | $4.13 (-3.7%) |
| 2018 | $836.5m (-0.3%) | $83.2m (33.4%) | $116.5m (53.1%) | 9.9% (33.8%) | $5.48 (32.7%) |
| 2019 | $877.8m (4.9%) | $99.6m (19.7%) | $102.9m (-11.7%) | 11.3% (14.1%) | $6.52 (19.0%) |
| 2020 | $846.2m (-3.6%) | $138.2m (38.8%) | $99.5m (-3.3%) | 16.3% (43.9%) | $9.25 (41.9%) |
| 2021 | $884.9m (4.6%) | $130.7m (-5.4%) | $133.2m (33.8%) | 14.8% (-9.6%) | $8.85 (-4.3%) |
| 2022 | $797.6m (-9.9%) | $46.6m (-64.4%) | $42.2m (-68.3%) | 5.8% (-60.5%) | $3.17 (-64.2%) |
| 2023 | $931.0m (16.7%) | $18.9m (-59.5%) | $50.3m (19.2%) | 2.0% (-65.3%) | $1.28 (-59.6%) |
| 2024 | $1.1b (20.3%) | $70.7m (274.7%) | $124.3m (147.0%) | 6.3% (211.5%) | $4.79 (274.2%) |
| 2025 | $1.3b (12.8%) | $99.3m (40.3%) | $192.0m (54.4%) | 7.9% (24.4%) | $6.72 (40.3%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.