Discounted Cash Flow

Saia Inc.

SAIA · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $1.2b $48.0m $26.4m 3.9% $1.92
2017 $1.4b (13.1%) $91.2m (89.8%) $-28.9m (-209.2%) 6.6% (67.8%) $3.57 (85.9%)
2018 $1.7b (20.0%) $105.0m (15.2%) $32.8m (213.6%) 6.3% (-4.0%) $4.08 (14.3%)
2019 $1.8b (8.0%) $113.7m (8.3%) $-14.8m (-145.1%) 6.4% (0.3%) $4.38 (7.4%)
2020 $1.8b (2.0%) $138.3m (21.7%) $78.0m (627.8%) 7.6% (19.3%) $5.29 (20.8%)
2021 $2.3b (25.6%) $253.2m (83.1%) $96.8m (24.2%) 11.1% (45.8%) $9.62 (81.9%)
2022 $2.8b (22.0%) $357.4m (41.1%) $105.6m (9.0%) 12.8% (15.7%) $13.48 (40.1%)
2023 $2.9b (3.2%) $354.9m (-0.7%) $138.1m (30.7%) 12.3% (-3.8%) $13.32 (-1.2%)
2024 $3.2b (11.4%) $362.1m (2.0%) $-459.9m (-433.1%) 11.3% (-8.4%) $13.57 (1.9%)
2025 $3.2b (0.8%) $255.0m (-29.6%) $27.3m (105.9%) 7.9% (-30.1%) $9.54 (-29.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model