Discounted Cash Flow

Starbucks Corp.

SBUX · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $21.3b $2.8b $3.1b 13.2% $1.91
2017 $22.4b (5.0%) $2.9b (2.4%) $2.7b (-15.3%) 12.9% (-2.5%) $1.99 (4.2%)
2018 $24.7b (10.4%) $4.5b (56.6%) $10.0b (275.2%) 18.3% (41.8%) $3.27 (64.3%)
2019 $26.5b (7.2%) $3.6b (-20.3%) $3.2b (-67.5%) 13.6% (-25.7%) $2.95 (-9.8%)
2020 $23.5b (-11.3%) $928.3m (-74.2%) $114.2m (-96.5%) 3.9% (-70.9%) $0.79 (-73.2%)
2021 $29.1b (23.6%) $4.2b (352.4%) $4.5b (3857.2%) 14.5% (266.1%) $3.57 (351.9%)
2022 $32.3b (11.0%) $3.3b (-21.9%) $2.6b (-43.4%) 10.2% (-29.6%) $2.85 (-20.2%)
2023 $36.0b (11.6%) $4.1b (25.7%) $3.7b (43.8%) 11.5% (12.7%) $3.60 (26.3%)
2024 $36.2b (0.6%) $3.8b (-8.8%) $3.3b (-9.7%) 10.4% (-9.3%) $3.32 (-7.8%)
2025 $37.2b (2.8%) $1.9b (-50.6%) $2.4b (-26.4%) 5.0% (-52.0%) $1.63 (-50.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model