Discounted Cash Flow

Shake Shack Inc.

SHAK · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $268.5m $9.7m $-148.0k 3.6% $0.96
2017 $358.8m (33.6%) $9.2m (-5.1%) $9.3m (6414.2%) 2.6% (-29.0%) $0.34 (-64.4%)
2018 $459.3m (28.0%) $6.8m (-26.5%) $-2.1m (-122.8%) 1.5% (-42.5%) $0.78 (125.9%)
2019 $594.5m (29.4%) $4.3m (-36.5%) $-16.6m (-681.7%) 0.7% (-50.9%) $0.77 (-0.9%)
2020 $522.9m (-12.1%) $-3.4m (-178.5%) $-31.7m (-90.3%) -0.6% (-189.2%) $-1.23 (-259.5%)
2021 $739.9m (41.5%) $-1.5m (56.9%) $-43.1m (-36.0%) -0.2% (69.5%) $-0.26 (78.9%)
2022 $900.5m (21.7%) $-1.9m (-28.8%) $-65.8m (-52.7%) -0.2% (-5.9%) $-0.66 (-155.8%)
2023 $1.1b (20.8%) $726.0k (138.7%) $-14.0m (78.7%) 0.1% (132.0%) $0.53 (180.5%)
2024 $1.3b (15.2%) $613.0k (-15.6%) $35.7m (354.2%) 0.0% (-26.7%) $0.27 (-49.0%)
2025 $1.4b (15.4%) $4.0m (549.4%) $56.5m (58.5%) 0.3% (462.8%) $1.24 (355.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model