Discounted Cash Flow
Shake Shack Inc.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $268.5m | $9.7m | $-148.0k | 3.6% | $0.96 |
| 2017 | $358.8m (33.6%) | $9.2m (-5.1%) | $9.3m (6414.2%) | 2.6% (-29.0%) | $0.34 (-64.4%) |
| 2018 | $459.3m (28.0%) | $6.8m (-26.5%) | $-2.1m (-122.8%) | 1.5% (-42.5%) | $0.78 (125.9%) |
| 2019 | $594.5m (29.4%) | $4.3m (-36.5%) | $-16.6m (-681.7%) | 0.7% (-50.9%) | $0.77 (-0.9%) |
| 2020 | $522.9m (-12.1%) | $-3.4m (-178.5%) | $-31.7m (-90.3%) | -0.6% (-189.2%) | $-1.23 (-259.5%) |
| 2021 | $739.9m (41.5%) | $-1.5m (56.9%) | $-43.1m (-36.0%) | -0.2% (69.5%) | $-0.26 (78.9%) |
| 2022 | $900.5m (21.7%) | $-1.9m (-28.8%) | $-65.8m (-52.7%) | -0.2% (-5.9%) | $-0.66 (-155.8%) |
| 2023 | $1.1b (20.8%) | $726.0k (138.7%) | $-14.0m (78.7%) | 0.1% (132.0%) | $0.53 (180.5%) |
| 2024 | $1.3b (15.2%) | $613.0k (-15.6%) | $35.7m (354.2%) | 0.0% (-26.7%) | $0.27 (-49.0%) |
| 2025 | $1.4b (15.4%) | $4.0m (549.4%) | $56.5m (58.5%) | 0.3% (462.8%) | $1.24 (355.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.