Discounted Cash Flow
Shopify Inc.
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—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $389.3m | $-35.4m | $-9.8m | -9.1% | — |
| 2017 | $673.3m (72.9%) | $-40.0m (-13.1%) | $-12.1m (-24.5%) | -5.9% (34.6%) | — |
| 2018 | $1.1b (59.4%) | $-64.6m (-61.4%) | $-18.6m (-53.4%) | -6.0% (-1.3%) | — |
| 2019 | $1.6b (47.0%) | $-124.8m (-93.4%) | $13.9m (174.4%) | -7.9% (-31.5%) | $-1.10 |
| 2020 | $2.9b (85.6%) | $319.5m (355.9%) | $383.2m (2665.8%) | 10.9% (237.9%) | $2.67 (342.7%) |
| 2021 | $4.6b (57.4%) | $2.9b (812.2%) | $453.6m (18.4%) | 63.2% (479.5%) | $23.38 (775.7%) |
| 2022 | $5.6b (22.4%) | $-3.5b (-218.7%) | $-186.0m (-141.0%) | -61.3% (-197.0%) | $-2.73 (-111.7%) |
| 2023 | $7.2b (27.6%) | $132.0m (103.8%) | $905.0m (586.6%) | 1.8% (103.0%) | $0.10 (103.7%) |
| 2024 | $8.9b (23.2%) | $2.0b (1429.5%) | $1.6b (76.5%) | 22.7% (1141.4%) | $1.57 (1470.0%) |
| 2025 | $11.6b (30.1%) | $1.2b (-39.0%) | $2.0b (25.7%) | 10.7% (-53.1%) | $0.95 (-39.5%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.