Discounted Cash Flow
Selective Insurance Group Inc.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $2.3b | $158.5m | $283.6m | 6.9% | $2.74 |
| 2017 | $2.5b (8.1%) | $168.8m (6.5%) | $356.7m (25.7%) | 6.8% (-1.5%) | $2.89 (5.5%) |
| 2018 | $2.6b (4.7%) | $178.9m (6.0%) | $438.8m (23.0%) | 6.9% (1.2%) | $3.04 (5.2%) |
| 2019 | $2.8b (10.1%) | $271.6m (51.8%) | $446.5m (1.7%) | 9.5% (37.9%) | $4.57 (50.3%) |
| 2020 | $2.9b (2.7%) | $246.4m (-9.3%) | $532.0m (19.1%) | 8.4% (-11.7%) | $4.12 (-9.8%) |
| 2021 | $3.4b (15.6%) | $403.8m (63.9%) | $749.3m (40.8%) | 12.0% (41.8%) | $6.55 (59.0%) |
| 2022 | $3.6b (5.3%) | $224.9m (-44.3%) | $776.4m (3.6%) | 6.3% (-47.1%) | $3.57 (-45.5%) |
| 2023 | $4.2b (18.9%) | $365.2m (62.4%) | $736.3m (-5.2%) | 8.6% (36.5%) | $5.87 (64.4%) |
| 2024 | $4.9b (14.9%) | $207.0m (-43.3%) | $1.1b (45.2%) | 4.3% (-50.7%) | $3.25 (-44.6%) |
| 2025 | $5.3b (9.8%) | $466.4m (125.3%) | $1.2b (11.7%) | 8.7% (105.2%) | $7.54 (132.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.