Discounted Cash Flow

SM Energy Co.

SM · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $1.2b $-757.7m $552.8m -62.2% $-9.90
2017 $1.1b (-7.2%) $-160.8m (78.8%) $515.4m (-6.8%) -14.2% (77.1%) $-1.44 (85.5%)
2018 $2.1b (83.0%) $508.4m (416.1%) $720.6m (39.8%) 24.6% (272.7%) $4.54 (415.3%)
2019 $1.6b (-23.1%) $-187.0m (-136.8%) $823.6m (14.3%) -11.8% (-147.8%) $-1.66 (-136.6%)
2020 $1.1b (-29.1%) $-764.6m (-308.9%) $790.9m (-4.0%) -67.9% (-477.1%) $-6.72 (-304.8%)
2021 $2.6b (132.8%) $36.2m (104.7%) $36.2m (-95.4%) 1.4% (102.0%) $0.30 (104.5%)
2022 $3.4b (28.1%) $1.1b (2969.2%) $806.5m (2126.0%) 33.1% (2296.9%) $9.09 (2930.0%)
2023 $2.4b (-29.3%) $817.9m (-26.4%) $475.0m (-41.1%) 34.5% (4.1%) $6.89 (-24.2%)
2024 $2.7b (13.3%) $770.3m (-5.8%) $-1.6b (-444.2%) 28.6% (-16.9%) $6.71 (-2.6%)
2025 $3.2b (17.2%) $648.0m (-15.9%) $539.0m (133.0%) 20.5% (-28.2%) $5.65 (-15.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model