Discounted Cash Flow

Simply Good Foods Co.

SMPL · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $339.8m $-2.5m $21.4m -0.7%
2018 $431.4m (27.0%) $70.5m (2935.2%) $59.3m (176.4%) 16.3% (2333.3%) $1.00
2019 $523.4m (21.3%) $47.5m (-32.5%) $72.0m (21.5%) 9.1% (-44.4%) $0.59 (-41.0%)
2020 $816.6m (56.0%) $34.7m (-27.0%) $57.2m (-20.6%) 4.2% (-53.2%) $0.37 (-37.3%)
2021 $1.0b (23.1%) $40.9m (17.8%) $126.2m (120.6%) 4.1% (-4.3%) $0.43 (15.6%)
2022 $1.2b (16.2%) $108.6m (165.6%) $105.4m (-16.5%) 9.3% (128.5%) $1.10 (157.5%)
2023 $1.2b (6.3%) $133.6m (23.0%) $159.5m (51.3%) 10.7% (15.7%) $1.34 (22.2%)
2024 $1.3b (7.1%) $139.3m (4.3%) $210.0m (31.6%) 10.5% (-2.7%) $1.39 (3.8%)
2025 $1.5b (9.0%) $103.6m (-25.6%) $157.9m (-24.8%) 7.1% (-31.8%) $1.03 (-26.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model