Discounted Cash Flow

Simon Property Group Inc. REIT

SPG · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $5.4b $1.8b $3.3b 33.8% $5.87
2017 $5.5b (1.9%) $1.9b (5.9%) $3.6b (7.0%) 35.1% (4.0%) $6.24 (6.3%)
2018 $5.7b (2.2%) $2.4b (25.3%) $3.7b (4.5%) 43.1% (22.7%) $7.87 (26.1%)
2019 $5.8b (1.7%) $2.1b (-13.9%) $3.4b (-7.9%) 36.5% (-15.3%) $6.81 (-13.5%)
2020 $4.6b (-19.9%) $1.1b (-47.1%) $2.3b (-33.2%) 24.1% (-34.0%) $3.59 (-47.3%)
2021 $5.1b (11.1%) $2.2b (102.5%) $3.6b (57.1%) 43.9% (82.4%) $6.84 (90.5%)
2022 $5.3b (3.4%) $2.1b (-4.9%) $3.7b (2.7%) 40.4% (-8.0%) $6.52 (-4.7%)
2023 $5.7b (6.9%) $2.3b (6.7%) $3.9b (5.4%) 40.3% (-0.2%) $6.98 (7.1%)
2024 $6.0b (5.4%) $2.4b (3.8%) $3.6b (-8.4%) 39.7% (-1.5%) $7.26 (4.0%)
2025 $6.4b (6.7%) $4.6b (95.3%) $4.1b (14.4%) 72.7% (83.0%) $14.17 (95.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model