Discounted Cash Flow

Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.

SSD · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $860.7m $89.7m $52.9m 10.4% $1.87
2017 $977.0m (13.5%) $92.6m (3.2%) $61.0m (15.3%) 9.5% (-9.1%) $1.95 (4.3%)
2018 $1.1b (10.4%) $126.6m (36.7%) $130.8m (114.3%) 11.7% (23.8%) $2.74 (40.5%)
2019 $1.1b (5.4%) $134.0m (5.8%) $173.0m (32.3%) 11.8% (0.4%) $3.00 (9.5%)
2020 $1.3b (11.6%) $187.0m (39.6%) $169.7m (-1.9%) 14.7% (25.1%) $4.28 (42.7%)
2021 $1.6b (24.1%) $266.4m (42.5%) $107.6m (-36.6%) 16.9% (14.8%) $6.15 (43.7%)
2022 $2.1b (34.5%) $334.0m (25.4%) $337.5m (213.7%) 15.8% (-6.8%) $7.78 (26.5%)
2023 $2.2b (4.6%) $354.0m (6.0%) $338.2m (0.2%) 16.0% (1.3%) $8.31 (6.8%)
2024 $2.2b (0.8%) $322.2m (-9.0%) $157.8m (-53.3%) 14.4% (-9.7%) $7.64 (-8.1%)
2025 $2.3b (4.5%) $345.1m (7.1%) $297.6m (88.6%) 14.8% (2.5%) $8.27 (8.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model