Discounted Cash Flow

Shutterstock, Inc.

SSTK · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $494.3m $32.6m $61.2m 6.6% $0.93
2017 $557.1m (12.7%) $16.7m (-48.7%) $53.0m (-13.4%) 3.0% (-54.5%) $0.48 (-48.4%)
2018 $623.2m (11.9%) $54.7m (226.9%) $67.3m (27.1%) 8.8% (192.2%) $1.57 (227.1%)
2019 $650.5m (4.4%) $20.1m (-63.2%) $76.6m (13.7%) 3.1% (-64.8%) $0.57 (-63.7%)
2020 $666.7m (2.5%) $71.8m (256.9%) $139.4m (82.1%) 10.8% (248.3%) $2.00 (250.9%)
2021 $773.4m (16.0%) $91.9m (28.0%) $188.2m (35.0%) 11.9% (10.4%) $2.52 (26.0%)
2022 $827.8m (7.0%) $76.1m (-17.2%) $115.2m (-38.8%) 9.2% (-22.6%) $2.11 (-16.3%)
2023 $874.6m (5.6%) $110.3m (44.9%) $95.9m (-16.7%) 12.6% (37.1%) $3.07 (45.5%)
2024 $935.3m (6.9%) $35.9m (-67.4%) $-14.6m (-115.2%) 3.8% (-69.5%) $1.02 (-66.8%)
2025 $989.9m (5.8%) $45.5m (26.6%) $123.8m (950.0%) 4.6% (19.6%) $1.29 (26.5%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model