Discounted Cash Flow

Stag Industrial, Inc. REIT

STAG · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $250.2m $34.5m $135.4m 13.8%
2017 $301.1m (20.3%) $31.3m (-9.4%) $162.6m (20.0%) 10.4% (-24.7%)
2018 $351.0m (16.6%) $92.9m (197.3%) $197.8m (21.7%) 26.5% (155.0%)
2019 $405.9m (15.7%) $49.3m (-47.0%) $233.4m (18.0%) 12.1% (-54.1%)
2020 $483.4m (19.1%) $202.1m (310.2%) $293.9m (26.0%) 41.8% (244.5%)
2021 $562.2m (16.3%) $192.3m (-4.9%) $336.2m (14.4%) 34.2% (-18.2%)
2022 $657.3m (16.9%) $178.3m (-7.3%) $335.2m (-0.3%) 27.1% (-20.7%)
2023 $707.8m (7.7%) $1 (-100.0%) $372.6m (11.2%) 0.0% (-100.0%)
2024 $767.4m (8.4%) $189.2m (17684112049.5%) $375.1m (0.7%) 24.7% (16311824909.9%)
2025 $845.2m (10.1%) $273.5m (44.6%) $401.8m (7.1%) 32.4% (31.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model