Discounted Cash Flow

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. REIT

STWD · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $784.7m $365.2m $196.3m 46.5% $1.52
2017 $879.9m (12.1%) $400.8m (9.7%) $-345.2m (-275.9%) 45.5% (-2.1%) $1.53 (0.7%)
2018 $1.1b (26.1%) $385.8m (-3.7%) $93.1m (127.0%) 34.8% (-23.6%) $1.44 (-5.9%)
2019 $1.2b (7.9%) $509.7m (32.1%) $-111.5m (-219.8%) 42.6% (22.5%) $1.81 (25.7%)
2020 $1.1b (-5.0%) $331.7m (-34.9%) $1.0b (1018.0%) 29.2% (-31.5%) $1.16 (-35.9%)
2021 $1.2b (3.0%) $447.7m (35.0%) $-1.2b (-216.1%) 38.3% (31.1%) $1.54 (32.8%)
2022 $1.5b (25.2%) $871.5m (94.6%) $127.2m (110.7%) 59.5% (55.5%) $2.80 (81.8%)
2023 $2.0b (40.0%) $339.2m (-61.1%) $517.0m (306.4%) 16.5% (-72.2%) $1.07 (-61.8%)
2024 $1.9b (-5.0%) $359.9m (6.1%) $557.9m (7.9%) 18.5% (11.7%) $1.10 (2.8%)
2025 $1.8b (-5.3%) $411.5m (14.3%) $896.2m (60.6%) 22.3% (20.7%) $1.15 (4.5%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model