Discounted Cash Flow

Suncor Energy Inc. Foreign

SU · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $27.0b $434.0m 1.6%
2017 $32.2b (19.3%) $4.5b (927.2%) 13.9% (760.9%)
2018 $39.0b (21.2%) $5.0b (11.8%) 12.8% (-7.7%) $2.03
2019 $39.0b (0.0%) $2.5b (-49.2%) 6.5% (-49.2%) $1.86 (-8.4%)
2020 $25.1b (-35.7%) $-6.1b (-340.7%) -24.3% (-474.6%)
2021 $39.1b (56.1%) $5.6b (191.4%) 14.2% (158.5%) $2.77
2022 $58.5b (49.5%) $12.3b (121.1%) $10.5b 21.1% (47.9%) $6.54 (136.1%)
2023 $50.7b (-13.2%) $10.6b (-14.0%) $10.1b (-4.1%) 20.9% (-0.9%) $6.34 (-3.1%)
2024 $51.1b (0.8%) $8.2b (-22.7%) $13.1b (29.1%) 16.0% (-23.3%) $4.72 (-25.6%)
2025 $49.3b (-3.6%) $7.9b (-2.9%) $9.7b (-26.0%) 16.1% (0.7%) $4.85 (2.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model