Discounted Cash Flow

Trip.com Group Ltd. ADR

TCOM · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from CNY to USD

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $2.9b $-30.5m $97.8m -1.1%
2017 $4.1b (45.5%) $48.7m (259.8%) $150.1m (53.4%) 1.2% (209.8%)
2018 $4.5b (8.6%) $24.0m (-50.8%) $138.8m (-7.5%) 0.5% (-54.7%)
2019 $5.1b (13.7%) $148.9m (521.0%) $138.7m (-0.1%) 2.9% (446.1%)
2020 $2.8b (-45.2%) $-73.6m (-149.4%) $-99.0m (-171.4%) -2.6% (-190.1%)
2021 $3.1b (11.9%) $-12.7m (82.7%) $44.3m (144.7%) -0.4% (84.5%)
2022 $2.9b (-7.5%) $30.5m (339.5%) $30.5m (-31.1%) 1.0% (358.9%)
2023 $6.3b (115.7%) $206.7m (578.2%) $206.7m (578.2%) 3.3% (214.5%)
2024 $7.3b (16.5%) $346.0m (67.4%) $2.9b (1299.0%) 4.7% (43.7%)
2025 $8.9b (22.2%) $704.8m (103.7%) $2.1b (-27.0%) 7.9% (66.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model