Discounted Cash Flow

Transdigm Group Inc.

TDG · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $3.2b $586.4m $624.9m 18.5% $0.00
2017 $3.5b (10.5%) $596.9m (1.8%) $717.7m (14.8%) 17.0% (-7.9%) $46.00
2018 $3.8b (8.8%) $957.1m (60.3%) $948.8m (32.2%) 25.1% (47.4%) $0.00 (-100.0%)
2019 $5.2b (37.1%) $889.8m (-7.0%) $913.9m (-3.7%) 17.0% (-32.2%) $13.84
2020 $5.1b (-2.3%) $699.0m (-21.4%) $1.1b (21.2%) 13.7% (-19.6%) $8.96 (-35.3%)
2021 $4.8b (-6.0%) $680.0m (-2.7%) $808.0m (-27.1%) 14.2% (3.5%) $10.41 (16.2%)
2022 $5.4b (13.2%) $866.0m (27.4%) $829.0m (2.6%) 16.0% (12.6%) $13.40 (28.7%)
2023 $6.6b (21.3%) $1.3b (49.9%) $1.2b (49.1%) 19.7% (23.6%) $22.03 (64.4%)
2024 $7.9b (20.6%) $1.7b (32.0%) $1.9b (52.1%) 21.6% (9.5%) $25.62 (16.3%)
2025 $8.8b (11.2%) $2.1b (21.0%) $1.8b (-3.4%) 23.5% (8.8%) $32.08 (25.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model