Discounted Cash Flow

Target Corp.

TGT · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $73.8b $3.4b $-834.0m 4.6% $5.35
2017 $69.5b (-5.8%) $2.7b (-18.6%) $3.9b (566.3%) 3.9% (-13.6%) $4.74 (-11.4%)
2018 $72.7b (4.6%) $2.9b (7.2%) $4.4b (12.9%) 4.0% (2.5%) $5.32 (12.2%)
2019 $75.4b (3.6%) $2.9b (0.1%) $2.5b (-44.0%) 3.9% (-3.4%) $5.55 (4.3%)
2020 $78.1b (3.7%) $3.3b (11.7%) $4.1b (66.5%) 4.2% (7.8%) $6.42 (15.7%)
2021 $93.6b (19.8%) $4.4b (33.1%) $7.9b (92.6%) 4.7% (11.1%) $8.72 (35.8%)
2022 $106.0b (13.3%) $6.9b (59.0%) $5.1b (-35.5%) 6.6% (40.4%) $14.23 (63.2%)
2023 $109.1b (2.9%) $2.8b (-60.0%) $-1.5b (-129.7%) 2.5% (-61.1%) $6.02 (-57.7%)
2024 $107.4b (-1.6%) $4.1b (48.8%) $3.8b (352.6%) 3.9% (51.2%) $8.96 (48.8%)
2025 $106.6b (-0.8%) $4.1b (-1.1%) $4.5b (17.3%) 3.8% (-0.4%) $8.89 (-0.8%)
2026 $104.8b (-1.7%) $3.7b (-9.4%) $6.6b (46.6%) 3.5% (-7.9%) $8.16 (-8.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model