Discounted Cash Flow

Timken Co.

TKR · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $2.7b $152.6m $264.5m 5.7% $1.94
2017 $3.0b (12.5%) $203.4m (33.3%) $132.1m (-50.1%) 6.8% (18.5%) $2.62 (35.1%)
2018 $3.6b (19.2%) $302.8m (48.9%) $219.9m (66.5%) 8.5% (24.9%) $3.93 (50.0%)
2019 $3.8b (5.8%) $362.1m (19.6%) $409.5m (86.2%) 9.6% (13.0%) $4.78 (21.6%)
2020 $3.5b (-7.3%) $284.5m (-21.4%) $456.0m (11.4%) 8.1% (-15.2%) $3.78 (-20.9%)
2021 $4.1b (17.6%) $369.1m (29.7%) $239.0m (-47.6%) 8.9% (10.3%) $4.86 (28.6%)
2022 $4.5b (8.8%) $407.4m (10.4%) $285.4m (19.4%) 9.1% (1.4%) $5.54 (14.0%)
2023 $4.8b (6.1%) $394.1m (-3.3%) $357.4m (25.2%) 8.3% (-8.8%) $5.52 (-0.4%)
2024 $4.6b (-4.1%) $352.7m (-10.5%) $305.7m (-14.5%) 7.7% (-6.7%) $5.02 (-9.1%)
2025 $4.6b (0.2%) $288.4m (-18.2%) $406.1m (32.8%) 6.3% (-18.4%) $4.13 (-17.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model