Discounted Cash Flow
Tilly's, Inc.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $551.0m | $7.5m | — | 1.4% | $0.40 |
| 2017 | $569.0m (3.3%) | $11.4m (51.3%) | $31.4m | 2.0% (46.5%) | $0.51 (27.5%) |
| 2018 | $576.9m (1.4%) | $14.7m (28.8%) | $19.0m (-39.7%) | 2.5% (27.1%) | $0.84 (64.7%) |
| 2019 | $598.5m (3.7%) | $24.9m (69.7%) | $31.8m (67.9%) | 4.2% (63.6%) | $0.76 (-9.5%) |
| 2020 | $619.3m (3.5%) | $22.6m (-9.3%) | $22.1m (-30.4%) | 3.7% (-12.4%) | $-0.04 (-105.3%) |
| 2021 | $531.3m (-14.2%) | $-1.1m (-105.1%) | $30.4m (37.5%) | -0.2% (-105.9%) | $2.06 (5250.0%) |
| 2022 | $775.7m (46.0%) | $64.2m (5711.3%) | $50.0m (64.3%) | 8.3% (3943.6%) | $0.32 (-84.5%) |
| 2023 | $672.3m (-13.3%) | $9.7m (-84.9%) | $-16.5m (-133.1%) | 1.4% (-82.6%) | $-1.16 (-462.5%) |
| 2024 | $623.1m (-7.3%) | $-34.5m (-456.4%) | $-20.7m (-25.1%) | -5.5% (-484.6%) | $-1.54 (-32.8%) |
| 2025 | $569.5m (-8.6%) | $-46.2m (-34.0%) | $-50.2m (-142.8%) | -8.1% (-46.7%) | $-1.54 (0.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.