Discounted Cash Flow

Toyota Motor Corp./ ADR

TM · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from JPY to USD

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $24.7t $11.5b $6.9b 0.0% $605.47
2018 $27.4t (10.9%) $15.6b (36.2%) $18.3b (166.2%) 0.1% (22.8%) $842.00 (39.1%)
2019 $30.2t (10.2%) $11.8b (-24.5%) $14.5b (-20.7%) 0.0% (-31.5%) $650.55 (-22.7%)
2020 $29.9t (-1.0%) $13.0b (10.3%) $13.7b (-5.7%) 0.0% (11.4%) $735.61 (13.1%)
2021 $27.2t (-9.1%) $14.1b (8.1%) $2.8b (-79.3%) 0.1% (18.9%) $803.23 (9.2%)
2022 $31.4t (15.3%) $17.9b (26.9%) $9.0b (217.9%) 0.1% (10.1%) $205.23 (-74.4%)
2023 $37.2t (18.4%) $15.4b (-14.0%) $6.6b (-27.0%) 0.0% (-27.4%) $179.47 (-12.6%)
2024 $45.1t (21.4%) $31.0b (101.7%) $8.4b (27.8%) 0.1% (66.2%) $365.94 (103.9%)
2025 $48.0t (6.5%) $29.9b (-3.6%) $4.4b (-47.7%) 0.1% (-9.5%) $359.56 (-1.7%)
2026 $50.7t (5.5%) $25.0b (-16.4%) $17.0b (286.6%) 0.0% (-20.7%) $295.25 (-17.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in JPY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model