Discounted Cash Flow

Taylor Morrison Home Corp.

TMHC · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $184.0k $52.6m $370.7m 28595.7% $1.69
2017 $577.0k (213.6%) $91.2m (73.4%) $382.8m (3.3%) 15809.4% (-44.7%) $1.47 (-13.0%)
2018 $4.2b (732550.4%) $206.4m (126.2%) $115.1m (-69.9%) 4.9% (-100.0%) $1.85 (25.9%)
2019 $4.8b (12.6%) $254.7m (23.4%) $363.1m (215.4%) 5.3% (9.5%) $2.38 (28.6%)
2020 $6.1b (28.7%) $243.4m (-4.4%) $1.1b (199.0%) 4.0% (-25.7%) $1.90 (-20.2%)
2021 $7.5b (22.4%) $663.0m (172.4%) $355.4m (-67.3%) 8.8% (122.5%) $5.26 (176.8%)
2022 $8.2b (9.6%) $1.1b (58.8%) $1.1b (203.1%) 12.8% (44.8%) $9.16 (74.1%)
2023 $7.4b (-9.8%) $768.9m (-27.0%) $772.7m (-28.3%) 10.4% (-19.0%) $7.09 (-22.6%)
2024 $8.2b (10.1%) $883.3m (14.9%) $173.7m (-77.5%) 10.8% (4.3%) $8.43 (18.9%)
2025 $8.1b (-0.6%) $782.5m (-11.4%) $777.0m (347.2%) 9.6% (-10.9%) $7.90 (-6.3%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model