Discounted Cash Flow
Toll Brothers, Inc.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $5.2b | $382.1m | $120.3m | 7.4% | $2.27 |
| 2017 | $5.8b (12.5%) | $535.5m (40.1%) | $930.8m (673.5%) | 9.2% (24.6%) | $3.30 (45.4%) |
| 2018 | $7.1b (22.8%) | $748.2m (39.7%) | $574.2m (-38.3%) | 10.5% (13.7%) | $4.92 (49.1%) |
| 2019 | $7.2b (1.1%) | $590.0m (-21.1%) | $350.7m (-38.9%) | 8.2% (-22.0%) | $4.07 (-17.3%) |
| 2020 | $7.1b (-2.0%) | $446.6m (-24.3%) | $898.6m (156.2%) | 6.3% (-22.7%) | $3.43 (-15.7%) |
| 2021 | $8.8b (24.2%) | $833.6m (86.7%) | $1.2b (37.6%) | 9.5% (50.3%) | $6.72 (95.9%) |
| 2022 | $10.3b (16.9%) | $1.3b (54.3%) | $915.1m (-26.0%) | 12.5% (32.0%) | $11.02 (64.0%) |
| 2023 | $10.0b (-2.7%) | $1.4b (6.7%) | $1.2b (30.4%) | 13.7% (9.6%) | $12.47 (13.2%) |
| 2024 | $10.8b (8.5%) | $1.6b (14.5%) | $936.5m (-21.5%) | 14.5% (5.5%) | $15.16 (21.6%) |
| 2025 | $11.0b (1.1%) | $1.3b (-14.3%) | $1.0b (9.6%) | 12.3% (-15.2%) | $13.60 (-10.3%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.