Discounted Cash Flow

Turning Point Brands, Inc.

TPB · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $206.2m $26.9m $5.9m 13.1% $1.63
2017 $285.8m (38.6%) $20.2m (-24.9%) $27.7m (367.3%) 7.1% (-45.8%) $1.06 (-35.0%)
2018 $332.7m (16.4%) $25.3m (25.1%) $10.8m (-60.9%) 7.6% (7.5%) $1.31 (23.6%)
2019 $362.0m (8.8%) $13.8m (-45.5%) $33.0m (204.7%) 3.8% (-49.9%) $0.70 (-46.6%)
2020 $405.1m (11.9%) $33.0m (139.9%) $37.5m (13.8%) 8.2% (114.3%) $1.70 (142.9%)
2021 $445.5m (10.0%) $52.1m (57.6%) $62.1m (65.3%) 11.7% (43.3%) $2.75 (61.8%)
2022 $415.0m (-6.8%) $11.6m (-77.6%) $22.6m (-63.6%) 2.8% (-76.0%) $0.65 (-76.4%)
2023 $405.4m (-2.3%) $38.5m (230.4%) $61.2m (170.8%) 9.5% (238.2%) $2.19 (236.9%)
2024 $360.7m (-11.0%) $39.8m (3.5%) $62.4m (2.1%) 11.0% (16.3%) $2.24 (2.3%)
2025 $463.1m (28.4%) $58.2m (46.1%) $43.8m (-29.8%) 12.6% (13.8%) $3.18 (42.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model