Discounted Cash Flow

Trex Co. Inc.

TREX · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $479.6m $67.8m $70.7m 14.1% $2.31
2017 $565.2m (17.8%) $95.1m (40.2%) $86.8m (22.7%) 16.8% (19.0%) $3.24 (40.3%)
2018 $684.2m (21.1%) $134.6m (41.5%) $104.3m (20.1%) 19.7% (16.8%) $2.29 (-29.3%)
2019 $745.3m (8.9%) $144.7m (7.6%) $89.1m (-14.6%) 19.4% (-1.3%) $2.48 (8.3%)
2020 $880.8m (18.2%) $175.6m (21.3%) $14.5m (-83.8%) 19.9% (2.7%) $1.52 (-38.7%)
2021 $1.2b (35.9%) $208.7m (18.8%) $98.7m (581.8%) 17.4% (-12.5%) $1.81 (19.1%)
2022 $1.1b (-7.6%) $184.6m (-11.6%) $40.0m (-59.5%) 16.7% (-4.3%) $1.65 (-8.8%)
2023 $1.1b (-1.0%) $205.4m (11.2%) $223.3m (458.4%) 18.8% (12.4%) $1.89 (14.5%)
2024 $1.2b (5.2%) $226.4m (10.2%) $-88.4m (-139.6%) 19.7% (4.8%) $2.09 (10.6%)
2025 $1.2b (2.0%) $190.4m (-15.9%) $134.5m (252.2%) 16.2% (-17.5%) $1.78 (-14.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model