Discounted Cash Flow

Trinity Industries Inc.

TRN · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $4.6b $343.6m $955.9m 7.5% $2.25
2017 $3.7b (-20.2%) $702.5m (104.5%) $657.2m (-31.2%) 19.2% (156.1%) $4.62 (105.3%)
2018 $2.5b (-31.5%) $159.3m (-77.3%) $341.8m (-48.0%) 6.3% (-66.9%) $1.09 (-76.4%)
2019 $3.0b (19.8%) $137.6m (-13.6%) $296.6m (-13.2%) 4.6% (-27.9%) $1.09 (0.0%)
2020 $2.0b (-33.5%) $-147.3m (-207.0%) $549.4m (85.2%) -7.4% (-260.9%) $-1.27 (-216.5%)
2021 $1.5b (-24.2%) $182.0m (223.6%) $588.2m (7.1%) 12.0% (263.0%) $1.79 (240.9%)
2022 $2.0b (30.4%) $60.1m (-67.0%) $-50.8m (-108.6%) 3.0% (-74.7%) $0.73 (-59.2%)
2023 $3.0b (50.9%) $106.0m (76.4%) $254.3m (600.6%) 3.6% (16.9%) $1.31 (79.5%)
2024 $3.1b (3.2%) $138.4m (30.6%) $520.0m (104.5%) 4.5% (26.5%) $1.69 (29.0%)
2025 $2.2b (-30.0%) $253.1m (82.9%) $314.1m (-39.6%) 11.7% (161.1%) $3.13 (85.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model