Discounted Cash Flow

Travelers Companies, Inc.

TRV · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $27.6b $3.0b $4.2b 10.9% $10.39
2017 $28.9b (4.6%) $2.1b (-31.8%) $3.8b (-10.5%) 7.1% (-34.8%) $7.39 (-28.9%)
2018 $30.3b (4.8%) $2.5b (22.7%) $4.4b (16.4%) 8.3% (17.1%) $9.37 (26.8%)
2019 $31.6b (4.3%) $2.6b (3.9%) $5.2b (18.8%) 8.3% (-0.4%) $10.01 (6.8%)
2020 $32.0b (1.3%) $2.7b (2.9%) $6.5b (25.2%) 8.4% (1.6%) $10.56 (5.5%)
2021 $34.8b (8.9%) $3.7b (35.8%) $7.3b (11.6%) 10.5% (24.7%) $14.63 (38.5%)
2022 $36.9b (5.9%) $2.8b (-22.4%) $6.5b (-11.1%) 7.7% (-26.7%) $11.91 (-18.6%)
2023 $41.4b (12.1%) $3.0b (5.2%) $7.7b (19.3%) 7.2% (-6.2%) $12.93 (8.6%)
2024 $46.4b (12.2%) $5.0b (67.1%) $9.1b (17.7%) 10.8% (48.9%) $21.76 (68.3%)
2025 $48.8b (5.2%) $6.3b (25.8%) $10.6b (16.9%) 12.9% (19.6%) $27.83 (27.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model