Discounted Cash Flow

Tesla, Inc.

TSLA · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $7.0b $-674.9m $-1.4b -9.6% $-4.68
2017 $11.8b (68.0%) $-2.0b (-190.6%) $-3.5b (-147.4%) -16.7% (-73.0%) $-11.83 (-152.8%)
2018 $21.5b (82.5%) $-976.1m (50.2%) $-2.9m (99.9%) -4.5% (72.7%) $-5.72 (51.6%)
2019 $24.6b (14.5%) $-862.0m (11.7%) $1.1b (36992.5%) -3.5% (22.9%) $-4.92 (14.0%)
2020 $31.5b (28.3%) $721.0m (183.6%) $2.8b (158.4%) 2.3% (165.2%) $0.74 (115.0%)
2021 $53.8b (70.7%) $5.5b (665.5%) $5.0b (80.0%) 10.3% (348.5%) $5.60 (656.8%)
2022 $81.5b (51.4%) $12.6b (127.5%) $8.9b (77.2%) 15.4% (50.3%) $4.02 (-28.2%)
2023 $96.8b (18.8%) $15.0b (19.4%) $-5.9b (-165.9%) 15.5% (0.5%) $4.73 (17.7%)
2024 $97.7b (0.9%) $7.1b (-52.7%) $-21.0b (-259.2%) 7.3% (-53.2%) $2.23 (-52.9%)
2025 $94.8b (-2.9%) $3.8b (-46.5%) $-22.4b (-6.3%) 4.0% (-44.9%) $1.18 (-47.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model