Discounted Cash Flow

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. ADR

TSM · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $947.9b $331.7b $539.8b 35.0% $12.79
2017 $33.0b (-96.5%) $11.6b (-96.5%) $11.6b (-97.8%) 35.3% (0.9%) $0.45 (-96.5%)
2018 $33.7b (2.2%) $11.9b (1.9%) $11.9b (1.9%) 35.2% (-0.3%) $0.46 (2.2%)
2019 $35.8b (6.2%) $11.8b (-0.2%) $11.8b (-0.2%) 33.1% (-6.0%) $0.46 (0.0%)
2020 $47.7b (33.3%) $18.2b (53.7%) $18.2b (53.7%) 38.1% (15.3%) $0.70 (52.2%)
2021 $57.2b (20.0%) $21.4b (17.4%) $21.4b (17.4%) 37.3% (-2.2%) $0.82 (17.1%)
2022 $73.7b (28.7%) $32.3b (51.3%) $32.3b (51.3%) 43.9% (17.5%) $1.25 (52.4%)
2023 $70.6b (-4.2%) $27.8b (-13.9%) $27.8b (-13.9%) 39.4% (-10.2%) $1.07 (-14.4%)
2024 $88.3b (25.0%) $35.3b (27.0%) $35.3b (27.0%) 40.0% (1.6%) $1.36 (27.1%)
2025 $3.8t (4215.3%) $1.7t (4698.4%) $992.4b (2709.1%) 44.5% (11.2%) $65.47 (4714.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model