Discounted Cash Flow

Trade Desk, Inc.

TTD · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $202.9m $20.5m $68.1m 10.1% $-1.46
2017 $308.2m (51.9%) $50.8m (148.0%) $21.1m (-69.0%) 16.5% (63.3%) $1.26 (186.3%)
2018 $477.3m (54.9%) $88.1m (73.5%) $66.8m (216.4%) 18.5% (12.0%) $2.08 (65.1%)
2019 $661.1m (38.5%) $108.3m (22.9%) $24.5m (-63.3%) 16.4% (-11.3%) $2.43 (16.8%)
2020 $836.0m (26.5%) $242.3m (123.7%) $331.0m (1250.4%) 29.0% (76.9%) $5.24 (115.6%)
2021 $1.2b (43.1%) $137.8m (-43.1%) $323.7m (-2.2%) 11.5% (-60.3%) $0.29 (-94.5%)
2022 $1.6b (31.9%) $53.4m (-61.2%) $464.6m (43.5%) 3.4% (-70.6%) $0.11 (-62.1%)
2023 $1.9b (23.3%) $178.9m (235.2%) $551.5m (18.7%) 9.2% (171.7%) $0.37 (236.4%)
2024 $2.4b (25.6%) $393.1m (119.7%) $641.2m (16.3%) 16.1% (74.9%) $0.80 (116.2%)
2025 $2.9b (18.5%) $443.3m (12.8%) $795.7m (24.1%) 15.3% (-4.8%) $0.91 (13.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model