Discounted Cash Flow

Texas Roadhouse, Inc.

TXRH · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $2.0b $115.6m $92.3m 5.8% $1.64
2017 $2.2b (11.5%) $131.5m (13.8%) $124.7m (35.1%) 5.9% (2.0%) $1.85 (12.8%)
2018 $2.5b (10.7%) $158.2m (20.3%) $196.9m (57.8%) 6.4% (8.7%) $2.21 (19.5%)
2019 $2.8b (12.2%) $174.5m (10.3%) $160.0m (-18.8%) 6.3% (-1.7%) $2.47 (11.8%)
2020 $2.4b (-13.0%) $31.3m (-82.1%) $76.0m (-52.5%) 1.3% (-79.4%) $0.45 (-81.8%)
2021 $3.5b (44.4%) $245.3m (684.8%) $268.1m (252.6%) 7.1% (443.3%) $3.52 (682.2%)
2022 $4.0b (15.9%) $269.8m (10.0%) $265.6m (-0.9%) 6.7% (-5.1%) $3.99 (13.4%)
2023 $4.6b (15.4%) $304.9m (13.0%) $217.9m (-17.9%) 6.6% (-2.1%) $4.56 (14.3%)
2024 $5.4b (16.0%) $433.6m (42.2%) $399.3m (83.2%) 8.1% (22.6%) $6.50 (42.5%)
2025 $5.9b (9.4%) $405.6m (-6.5%) $342.1m (-14.3%) 6.9% (-14.5%) $6.11 (-6.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model