Discounted Cash Flow

United Airlines Holdings, Inc.

UAL · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $36.6b $2.3b $2.3b 6.2% $6.86
2017 $37.7b (3.2%) $2.1b (-5.8%) $-585.0m (-125.2%) 5.6% (-8.8%) $7.04 (2.6%)
2018 $41.3b (9.5%) $2.1b (-0.1%) $2.0b (442.6%) 5.2% (-8.7%) $7.73 (9.8%)
2019 $43.3b (4.7%) $3.0b (41.3%) $2.4b (18.8%) 7.0% (34.9%) $11.63 (50.5%)
2020 $15.4b (-64.5%) $-7.1b (-334.9%) $-5.9b (-346.1%) -46.0% (-761.9%) $-25.30 (-317.5%)
2021 $24.6b (60.4%) $-2.0b (72.2%) $-40.0m (99.3%) -8.0% (82.7%) $-6.10 (75.9%)
2022 $45.0b (82.5%) $737.0m (137.5%) $1.2b (3217.5%) 1.6% (120.6%) $2.26 (137.0%)
2023 $53.7b (19.5%) $2.6b (255.2%) $-260.0m (-120.9%) 4.9% (197.3%) $7.98 (253.1%)
2024 $57.1b (6.2%) $3.1b (20.3%) $3.8b (1573.1%) 5.5% (13.2%) $9.58 (20.1%)
2025 $59.1b (3.5%) $3.4b (6.5%) $2.6b (-33.2%) 5.7% (2.9%) $10.32 (7.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model